Message Number: 2026-05
Issued on: March 4, 2026 (2:00pm)
Issued by: Ian Eriksen, GSCA Flood Duty Officer
To: All Grey Sauble Conservation Watershed Municipalities and Watershed Media
Message:
The current forecast is calling for temperatures to rise above +10oC on Friday and Saturday. In addition, forecasts are expecting 10 to 40 mm of rain to fall in our region starting later Friday and much of Saturday. Recent snow surveys show that the snowpack in the southern part of our watershed has approximately 10 to 15 mm of water equivalent, while areas on the peninsula have between 20 and 30 mm of water equivalent. The snowpack is dense and saturated and ready to release water as it has become more compact with the recent nice weather.
As the snow melts and rain falls, the soil will become saturated under the snow, and additional snow melt will run off into ditches, streams and rivers. Seasonal flooding of low-lying areas may occur, and watercourses may reach or exceed their banks. Streamflow may reach typical spring levels, but major flooding is not expected at this time.
Currently, the risk of ice jamming appears to be low. However, isolated areas may experience issues as water levels rise and the ice cover breaks up.
Grey Sauble Conservation Authority would like to remind everyone that significant runoff events can lead to unsafe conditions near rivers and streams. Fast‑moving water, slippery or unstable banks, and melting ice can present significant safety risks. Please stay alert and avoid watercourses when flows are high.
Grey Sauble staff will continue to monitor the weather and the flows and provide additional updates as needed. Watershed residents can access snow, stream flow and rain gauge data through the Watershed Conditions page on our website: www.greysauble.on.ca/water-management/current-watershed-conditions/
This Statement expires Monday, March 9th, 2026 at 4:00pm unless replaced by further updates.
Contact: Ian Eriksen, Flood Duty Officer, flood@greysauble.on.ca, ph 548-877-0701
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